Friday, June 3, 2016

What if 1 and Done... Wasn't?

With the NBA draft approaching, Sean and I have had many discussions about potential moves and picks for our Celtics and Sixers. Both teams have assets and draft picks and a lot of room for improvement ('76ers probably more than anyone in the NBA which Sean actually talked about) but the one thing that stuck out to us when talking about these young prospects is just how many have left early, especially from teams like Duke and Kentucky. I started thinking (which isn't a normal occurrence): what if the rule was the same as football and these players were forced to give a damn about the college experience and school pride, staying around at least three years? What would the landscape of talent look like across college basketball?



So we started looking. And its more lopsided than you'd probably think. We realize half of these kids wouldn't have gone to where they did if the players in front of them hadn't left, but good lord, Kentucky and Duke would be ridiculous. With that said, there are some other schools that would potentially have really exciting teams and could even contend with the two one-and-done guru schools.

Let's first take a look at the top two programs in basketball - at least talent-wise - and drool over their embarrassment of riches starting with Duke.

When we think of the one-and-done phenomenon we think of slimy John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats - but Duke has a serious case as the most talented group of alumni from the past few years. Since the 2014 draft (three drafts ago if you include the upcoming one, which would make then-freshmen, juniors last year) 5 Blue Devils have been drafted, all of which were selected in the first round including three top 10 picks.

So lets look at these players. First of all just think about a trio of Brandon Ingram (likely top-2 pick this year), Jahlil Okafor (3rd pick last year, future Celtic), and Jabari Parker (#2 pick in 2014). That's nuts. Each of those three players were top 3 players in the nation during their one year in Durham. How about the players around them? Remember Tyus Jones? NCAA Tournament MVP with 23 points in the championship game. Justise Winslow? Starting forward for the Miami Heat. Not to mention sharp-shooter Rodney Hood who averaged 16 ppg in his one year as a sophomore and would've been a fifth-year senior last year if he stayed. Add to that Grayson Allen (21.6 ppg in 2015), Luke Kennard (11.8 ppg in 2015) who are two emerging (or emerged) stars at Duke and forward Amile Jefferson who was averaging 11.4 ppg before he was injured early last season.
















Wild.

And according to my sources (Sean looking at 247sports.com for me), the Blue Devils won't be stopping the trend any time soon. Their 2016 recruiting class is currently made up of the #2, #4, #13, #15, and #39 ranked players in the entire class.

If you think that "what if" is crazy, just wait until we dig into Kentucky where your head will explode. (Proceed with caution.)

The Wildcats have had an absurd SIXTEEN draft picks since 2012. 8 of those were lottery picks. 6 were in the top 7!

Head coach John Calipari has been the face of the one-and-done era with his charismatic personality and eyebrow-raising recruiting. He has become arguably the most influential coach in college basketball reaching at least the Elite Eight in 5 of his 7 years in Lexington and winning the championship in the 2011-12 season. 2012-13 was an ugly year for Calipari but the next year's class ('13-'14) brought an embarrassment of riches including Julius Randle, the Harrison twins, James Young, and Dakari Johnson (5 top 10 freshmen in the nation) along with 3 other top 200 players. That resulted in Calipari's second championship appearance with Kentucky but all of those players stayed another year except Randle and Young. The talent pool only grew in 2014-15 when the 'Cats added Karl-Anthony Towns, Trey Lyles, Tyler Ulis, and Devin Booker.



That 2014-15 team was as talented a team as any and went 32-0 in the regular season but their magical season came to a sudden halt in the Final Four. And with the additions of four more top 50 players to this stupid-rich talent pool from last year's freshman class, some of these players would be forced out because according to those sources - teams only get 13 scholarships.

So what would this talented, athletic, star-powered, roster look like? Well it would certainly be headlined by the most recent Rookie of the Year in Karl-Anthony Towns, starting forward for the Lakers Julius Randle who averaged a double-double last year and likely last year's All-American floor general Tyler Ulis. How about the rest of the team? Devin Booker who was on the NBA's All-Rookie Team, Trey Lyles who started 33 games for the Jazz, Jamal Murray who is a projected top 4 pick in the upcoming draft,  and Isaiah Briscoe who averaged 9.6 ppg last year as a freshman. And you can't forget about the veterans that would've likely led the team in Alex Poythress who will be in this year's draft, the Harrison twins, one of which plays for the Hornets, and James Young who plays for THE Boston Celtics.

Okay, that was probably really confusing. Here it is a little more clearly:














This doesn't even include Nerlens Noel and Willie Cauley-Stein who were both drafted 6th overall in their respective drafts and would have been seniors if they stayed until last year (which they would have been idiots to do). NOR does it include 6'11" forward Skal Labisierre who is projected to land in this year's lottery despite only averaging 6.6 ppg last year.

Every single one of the players above will play or are currently playing in the league - even Andrew Harrison. Oh, and if you're wondering about how their incoming recruiting class looks, my sources say two thumbs up to the tune of the #6, #9, #11, #14, and #24 rated players in the nation landing in Lexington next year.

Like I said earlier, most of these players would have gone other places if this rule was in place because of the players in front of them, but this is fun right? WE'RE HAVING FUN. Other teams would not touch this freakish amount of talented depth but there are a few that would have an exciting core of players. Like...

Kansas
Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Kelly Oubre are already in the league and would been a heck of a trio. Those three would be surrounded by Wayne Seldon, Jr., Perry Ellis, and Frank Mason III, three players that carried one of the best team's in the nation last season. That team would have been even better and could've pushed Kentucky and Duke. Wiggins and Embiid bring elite athleticism and length alone, complimented with the scoring of Seldon, Oubre and Mason - this Kansas team would be dirty:












Arizona
These Wildcats wouldn't match the depth of talent the other Wildcats would have but Arizona would present an exciting core as well. Stanley Johnson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Aaron Gordon would each still be in Tucson and would create an insane defensive force when joined with Pac-12 All-Defensive Team member Kaleb Tarcewski. That is a dynamic and versatile core of players and would be complimented by the trio of players that carried last season's team in Ryan Anderson, Gabe York, and Allonzo Trier who each averaged over 14 ppg. This team would be scary and would give anyone serious problems:















Syracuse
Syracuse has had two players drafted each of the last year and is expecting to have two more this year. Think of Tyler Ennis, a Naismith Finalist as a freshman, Jerami Grant who averages nearly 10 ppg for the 76ers, along with Chris McCullough whose freshman season ended halfway through the year thanks to injury. Those three would add to the five that carried Syracuse to the Final Four last season. Michael Gbinije, Malachi Richardson, Tyler Lydon, Tyler Roberson and Trevor Cooney. Adding Grant and McCullough's length, athleticism, and scoring abilities with Ennis running the team would add to what was already a dominant defensive team and would provide some ridiculous depth. Syracuse would also be the expert on players between 6'6" and 6'8" because they would have 5 of them at their disposal:















UCLA
You probably didn't realize it (at least I didn't) but UCLA has had five players drafted the last two seasons, all but one of which would still be eligible for the 2015 season. And if we extend that back one more season (to the 2013 draft, then freshman would have been seniors last season), we can include one of the most hyped high school prospects ever in Shabazz Muhammad. If this were the case, Muhammad would have teamed up with Kevon Looney of the Warriors, Kyle Anderson of the Spurs, and Zach Lavine of the dunk contest. The Bruins finished with a losing record last year despite 2nd-team All-Pac-12 guard Isaac Hamilton and Bryce Alford's best efforts. This team, while not as star-studded, would be deep and if they could get it together, would be a very tough scary team.
















That was a ton of information. Moral of the story: if NCAA basketball wasn't just a wast of time on the way to the league and adopted the same rule as its football counterpart, the basketball landscape would look very different and have some amazing teams littered all over the nation.

I, for one, would be all for the rule change actually happening. I think that seeing these players mature at an easier rate would give each of them a better chance instead of throwing their names in the hat juts because the people around them believe in their potential. If they were forced to stay at least three years, these players would also be given a better chance to create a legacy in college instead of just fading out of the D-league in after two years like so many of them do.

I get it though. Players get hurt and careers are derailed and you don't know how much opportunity these players really have, might as well get it while you got it. But I hope this over-the-top look at what college basketball would look like raised some eyebrows, because I was giddy doing this research thinking of what last season could've looked like.

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