Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Preview: Western Conference Finals

       

Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets

Game 1: Tue., May 19, at Golden State, 9 ET
Game 2: Thu., May 21, at Golden State, 9 ET
Game 3: Sat., May 23, at Houston, 9 ET
Game 4: Mon., May 25, at Houston, 9 ET
Game 5: Wed., May 27, at Golden State, 9 ET*
Game 6: Fri., May 29, at Houston, 9 ET*
Game 7: Sun., May 31, at Golden State, 9 ET*

*If necessary

The Western Conference Finals brings us a match-up of two of the best offensive teams in the league. Golden State dominated the season series 4-0. Though Dwight Howard was out for two of the contests, the Warriors outscored the Rockets by 61 points over the four regular season games. The teams' leaders Stephen Curry and James Harden each averaged just over 25 points per game when the two teams met. Curry is averaging 30, 8, and 8 along with 3.5 steals in Toyota Arena (Houston). Harden is averaging 26.7 points and 8 assists in this year's playoffs. But the series will hardly be just about these two All-Stars.

The Warriors are known as the best shooting team in the league. They have coasted through the playoffs compared to other teams remaining in the playoffs, defeating New Orleans 4-0 and Memphis 4-2. With multiple scoring threats on the team including Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, and Andre Iguodala leading a deep bench, there are plenty of weapons for Curry to work with. Curry and Thompson make up the best shooting back court in the league, finishing 4th and 5th respectively in the league in 3-point field goals during the regular season. The two account for almost 50% of the team's offense.

Houston reaches the semifinals after escaping from Chris Paul and Los Angeles in comeback fashion after being down 3-1. Journeyman Trevor Ariza had a huge Game 7 against the Clippers with 22 points and 7 rebounds, hitting multiple clutch threes to end the Clippers' season. Dwight Howard has been and extreme force all postseason. Against arguably the most athletic center in the league in DeAndre Jordan of the Clippers, Howard averaged 17.6 points and almost 14 rebounds over the seven game series. Though their bench isn't as deep, the Rockets boast role players like sharp-shooter Jason Terry, former Gator and Sean-approved* Corey Brewer, and a rejuvenated Josh Smith.

In order for the Rockets to win this series, they will have to play the way they did in their last three games that got them there - sharing the ball. Harden is known as one of the leagues first-team "ball-hogs" but has been very open to sharing the spotlight as of late (8 assists per game in confrence semifinals). The Rockets will also need to get Josh Smith involved in the offense. Smith along with Brewer fueled the Rockets' historic comeback in game 5 of the semifinals, scoring 20 of the teams final 21 points. Smith is a streaky scorer who was at one time, one of the best in the league and also has great chemistry with Howard on the court (they were AAU teammates in high school). If they can get these two going along with Terry from outside and Harden in his comfort zone, this team will be tough to beat.

The way I see it, the only team that can beat the Warriors is the Warriors themselves. They play great team basketball on both ends of the floor and are the best scoring team in the league. It is rare that all of the Warrior's weapons are having a bad night. With options like Green, Barnes and former Olympian Iguodala leading one of the deepest benches in the league, Golden State is often unstoppable.

The Rockets winning this series relies on quite a few things. First, Howard and Terrance Jones must dominate the paint. Coming off of one of the toughest match-ups the NBA has to offer in Deandre Jordan and Blake Griffin, the two now face a severe ability drop when facing the Golden State front-court. Another thing the Rockets must do is limit Curry and Thompson, especially keeping them from getting hot from three. 37-year-old Jason Terry did a relatively good job on arguably the leagues best true point guard in Chris Paul last series, can he do the same on Curry? While Curry and Thompson can score in a variety of ways, Curry and Thompson live and die by the three. The Rockets will need to play up on the sharpshooting duo and run them off of the 3-point line where they are relatively less effective. On top of all of this, the Rockets will need a great deal of hustle and scoring from their role-players in  Trevor Ariza, Josh Smith, and Corey Brewer (arguably the lamest dude in the NBA).

I greedily hope as a fan of the NBA that this series takes 7 games but I believe that it won't. Despite what I think is a huge advantage inside for the Rockets, the Warriors shooting, energy and defense will end this one in six games. I think the season series dominance was a great indicator for how this series will go and that the Warriors win it 4-2, continuing their quest for the franchise's first championship since 1975.



*Sean denies it but is known to show tendencies of being a Gator fan by wearing orange and blue and likely owns a Corey Brewer jersey.

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