Friday, November 13, 2015

Status Report: College Football Heading into Week 11

The 10th week of the college football season taught us a lot. There were upsets galore and some impressive wins by multiple teams. As the playoff picture becomes cloudier, Sean and I will try to make sense of what we've seen according to the CFB rankings)

AP Top 15:

1) Clemson (9-0) Wins: 24-22 vs #4 ND, 23-13 vs #16 FSU
Clemson had a huge win this weekend and now have a clear path to the ACC Championship game. Barring an upset they will likely play red-hot North Carolina which would give them another impressive win, solidifying them as the #1 team for the CFP.

via SportsIllustrated.com


2) Alabama (8-1) Ws: 30-16 vs #9 LSU, 35-17 vs #25 Wisconsin; L: Ole Miss
The Tide have played respectable teams almost every week but LSU and Wisconsin are the only ones that are still ranked. Last week, with the nation watching, they shut down one of college football's most dynamic players and looked dominant in doing so. This team is on a roll and looks like they might be the best team in the nation right now despite their loss to Ole Miss looking worse and worse by each passing week.

3) Ohio State (9-0) Ws: 38-10 vs Penn State?
Everyone wants to compare this team to the 2014 Seminoles. While there are many similarities (defending champs, narrow wins, off-the-field headlines) that FSU team at least played ranked teams. In fact they played three teams (Clemson, Louisville, GT) that finished the season ranked and a Notre Dame team that was as good as any team in the country when the 'Noles played them. Bottom line is you can't make the same argument that OSU should still be number one. We know what this team is capable of (see 2014), but we haven't seen them play that way. They will have opportunities to show us against Michigan State and at Michigan.

4) Notre Dame (8-1) Ws: 41-24 vs #20 Navy, at #22 Temple L: 22-24 at #1 Clemson
The Irish are sort of flying under the radar as the second best one-loss team. The three ranked teams they have played are each having one of the greatest seasons in their respective programs' history. If that didn't make sense to you, just know that Notre Dame has played three tough games and they are a failed 2-point try away from the nation's most impressive resume. They have another big game before the regular season's over against Stanford.

5) Iowa (9-0) Ws: 40-10 at #18 Northwestern, 10-6 at #25 Wisconsin
Bet you didn't realize Iowa has two top 25 wins. The committe did. Though they aren't very impressive top 25 wins, they are one of only four teams on this list that can say that. The nation has been looking down on the Hawkeyes for their crappy schedule but the committee noticed what they've done and have them ready to break into the top 4.


6) Baylor (8-0) Ws: 63-35 at Texas Tech?
Unlike the Hawkeyes, the Bears and their lying coach are yet to beat a ranked team but has looked dominant in many appearances. Last week they struggled with 4-4 Kansas State but found a way to pull it out in the end. Their final four weeks will be extremely difficult as they are scheduled to take on the Big 12's three best teams and Texas.

7) Stanford (8-1) Ws: 56-35 vs #19 UCLA Ls: 16-6 at #18 Northwestern
ESPN is in love with the Cardinal (?), probably because they are the only team remaining that can fit their "the Pac-12 is the second-best conference" narrative. Stanford has some good wins but we will see what they are really made of when they invite Notre Dame to Vatican Stadium (I made that up) on the last week of the season.

8) Oklahoma State (9-0) Ws: 49-29 vs #15 TCU
Oklahoma State had the most impressive win of the season. Before this game they felt like an empty undefeated team with 3 one-score wins and no top 25 victories. Saturday they looked like a top 5 team, intercepting one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the nation four times. They still have a lot of football to play at Iowa State (where they were upset in 2011), vs Baylor, and vs Oklahoma.


9) LSU (7-1) Ws: 21-19 at #17 Mississippi State, 35-28 vs #11 UF; Ls: 30-16 at #2 Alabama
LSU has one of the most impressive resumes in the nation and possibly its best player. So what is holding them back? A passing game and a bid to the SEC Championship game. They still have some loseable games to finish out the season but unless there is some serious shake-up ahead of them (which is extremely likely), then they will find themselves just outside of the top 4.

10) Utah (8-1) Ws: 24-17 vs #14 Michigan; Ls: 42-24 at USC
The Utes are another team with a pretty good resume. They have beaten 4-5 respectable teams (give or take Cal, not counting Oregon) but their loss to a fired up Trojan team has likely knocked them out of the CFP unless something dramatic changes ahead of them. They do have one more top 25 matchup vs UCLA to grab the committee's attention.

11) Florida (8-1) Ws: 38-10 vs Ole Miss; Ls: 35-28 at #9 LSU
If you can remember a time when Ole Miss was the #3 team in the country and they were slaughtered in Gainesville, then you remember what this team was capable of with Will Grier. The Gators no longer have Grier. They have Treon Harris. And Mr. Harris delivered them 158 yards and 9 points against the SEC's worst team Saturday. That being said, the Gators all but control their own destiny to get into the CFP if they can win out. That means wins over Florida State and the nation's hottest team, Alabama.

12) Oklahoma (8-1) Ws: 44-24 vs West Virginia? Ls: 24-17 vs Texas
Oklahoma has their work cut out for them. Their resume is not impressive - at all - but their final three games are against top 15 teams (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State). Just like UF, if they can somehow win out, they will likely find themselves with a valid case for a spot in the top four. Two of those three games are on the road, only time will tell whether they are capable of making a run like that.

via Gamedayr.com
13) Michigan State (8-1) Ws: 27-23 at #14 Michigan Ls: 39-38 at Nebraska
Everyone has been skeptical about the Spartans all year. Ever since their impressive early season win over Oregon turned out to be not-so-impressive, Michigan State has been skating on thin ice. Last week's loss was controversial and tough to swallow at Nebraska but there is not time for a pity party if they want to rebound and make a run for the playoffs. It's an outside chance, but they can still make a case if they can pull off impressive wins at Ohio State and against Penn State.

14) Michigan (7-2) Ws: 38-0 vs #18 Northwestern Ls: 27-23 vs #14 Michigan State
The Wolverines had likely the top slap-in-the-face-loss after outplaying Michigan State for most of the game and then handing them six on the last play. The Wolverines have the same opportunities as the Spartans vs Penn State and Ohio State to finish out their year.

15) TCU (8-1) Ws: 50-7 vs Texas? Ls: 49-29 vs #5 Oklahoma State
The Cowboys absolutely dismantled the Horned Frogs this weekend. TCU does not play defense defense and their best player, WR Josh Doctson, hurt his wrist Saturday. There hasn't been an update on Doctson, one of the nation's best at the position, but if they want to finish the season strong they'll need him back when they take on Oklahoma and Baylor in their last two games.

Teams to look out for:


20) Navy (7-1) Ws: 45-20 at #25 Memphis; Ls: 41-24 at #6 Notre Dame
The midshipmen are flying way under the radar. Last week they put a beat down on the undefeated Memphis Tigers and their only loss is at Notre Dame. This team can make a push for the playoff - yes the playoff - if they finish strong. They will play Houston in a couple weeks, an eyebrow-raising score will be necessary if either of these teams want a shot at the Playoff.

23) North Carolina (8-1) Ws: 66-31 vs Duke; Ls: 17-13 vs South Carolina
Okay, so I know Duke is not a great team but the completely dismantled the Blue Devils and are currently on fire. If they win out and upset #1 Clemson in the ACC Championship game they would have a shot at the CFP despite their embarrassing week one loss.

24) Houston (9-0) Ws: @ Louisville? vs Vandy? vs Cincinnati?
Houston is the last undefeated mid-major after Memphis fell last week and while they don't have a win over a ranked team, they do have a series of wins over power 5 teams. That series includes a 34-0 beatdown over Vandy who the next week (last week) lost to UF by two points. Sean is extremely high on the Cougars and thinks you should be too. They'll have to get by Navy impressively if they want a shot at the top four.

This is how the Playoff committee thinks the teams should be ranked. Here's Sean and I's top 10s:
All of this will change dramatically tomorrow (with two top 25 matchups *watch guide*) and over the last few weeks of the regular season. Every team on this list will be playing at least one other team on this list except for LSU before the final top 4 is announced. We are in for an exciting few weeks of college football.

Agree? Disagree? Let us know what you think on Twitter, Facebook, or in the comments below. Thank you for reading.

Stats via ESPN.com; Pictures are not ours.

Twitter: @RenegadeSports_
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